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In this paper, we propose Cayuga, a stateful publish/subscribe Cayuga technical report. ∼mshong/ 2. V. Sharma, and W. M. White. Cayuga: A general purpose event monitoring system. In CIDR, pages –, [9] K. El Gebaly, P. Agrawal, L. Golab, F. Korn. S.W. Effier, M.T. Auer, N.A. JohnsonModeling Cl concentrations in Cayuga Lake, U.S.A. Tech. Report Series No. R.T. OglesbyLimnology of Lake Cayuga.

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Environmental Protection Agency, and approved for publication. Approval does not signify that the contents necessarily reflect the views and policies of the U. Environmental Protection Agency, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products con- stitute endorsement or recommendation for use.

It assesses the technical and economical feasibility of developing mathematical models to assist in making selections from among alternative management strate- gies and structural solutions proposed for solving water resource problems of the Great Lakes. The study reviews, evaluates and categorized present and future water resources problems, presently available data, problem- oriented mathematical models and the state of models; and model synthesis for large lakes.

A demonstration modeling framework for planning is devel- oped and techreporr to western Lake Erie and the Great Lakes system. The report evaluates four widely ranging alternatives for future modeling ef- forts in the Great Lakes and recommends the modeling, level most feasible to answer planning questions on scales ranging from the Great Lakes to regional areas. Also tehreport is a proposed Commission study which will apply limnological systems analysis to the planning process.

The report consists of three volumes: Phase I – Preliminary Model Design. Summary and Conclusions 1 II. Introduction 9 Purpose and Orientation 9 Methodology. Water Resource Problems and Variables Existing Data 49 Introduction. Whitefish Bay, Wisconsin ‘ J 48 Primary Input – Output Variables. Under a Hypothetical Treatment Policy “. Counts and Total Chlorophyll Measurements.

Shore of Western Lake Erie ‘. Page 1 General Great Lakes Information Tfchreport in the Great Lakes Page ice weight force ‘.

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Foremost among those who contributed to this project techeeport Mr. Robb, staff members of the Commission. In addition, significant inputs to the study were provided by the Board, of Technical Advisors convened by the Great Lakes Basin Commission.

This board techrepprt technical input and project’review periodically during the study. The members of the board, Dr. The Plan and Program Formulation Committee composed of staff members from the various federal agencies and states represented- on the Commission furnished valuable input cayugx review,particularly with respect to definition of administrative and planning problems in the Great Lakes Basin.

Battelle Northwest performed subcontracting services within the project; for problem definition and state of the art technical evaluation and analysis in the areas of hydrological techreporg, ice and lake-wide temperature, and erosion-sediment. Hydroscience’s Board of Technical Consultants consisting of Dr. Saunders provided guidance and initial input to the study. Their contribution is both appreciated and acknowledged.

Csanady provided valuable contributions in the areas of ecological, fisheries, and hydrodynamic modeling. Raymond Canale;joined our staff on a temporary basis and provided significant assistance in development and application of demonstration models. Gedney kindly supplied us with detailed hydrodynamic calculations for the demonstration teechreport. Bruce, were most helpful, in making Western Lake Erie water quality data available for use in the Demonstration Model effort.


Their assistance is sincerely techhreport. Members of the Hydroscience staff who participated in this study are: Lederle, Miss Viola J. Special acknowledgement is expressed to Mrs. Anne Detroyer-for her patient and considerate efforts in synthesizing and. The cooperation and input of all the.

A methodology that proceeds along two parallel lines in order to evaluate the feasibility of the LimnologdLcal Systems Analysis is established. The first line of; analysis evaluates the present and future water resource problems and water use interferences with their associated water resource variables.

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The second line of analysis evaluates presently available data, problem oriented mathematical models, and present state of the art of models and model building which are required for a Liranological Systems Analysis.

In order to illustrate the Limnological Systems Analysis in several problem contexts, a demonstration modeling framework was constructed. Monthly Lake Water Levels arid Flows 2.

Toxic and Harmful Substances 5. Eutrophication, Fishery ‘ 7. Public Health For each problem category a detailed review was made of associated water uses and water variables, to provide the link to the available models. In order to address these problems a number of disciplines and specialties are required and are twchreport together in a systems context in the modeling framework.

A central requirement for framework modeling is the data available for its development and use.

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Contact was made with all of the major data storage and retrieval centers in the Great Lakes area and the data were then generally reviexved for geographical and’ variable coverage- incorporating in the review the data needs of the available models. From the large amount of information uncovered during the study, it is concluded that sufficient data presently exists for preliminary model development for many of the water resource problems of the Great Lakes. A review was also made of the available models that may be useful for a Limnological Systems Analysis.

Lake circulation and mixing ‘ 5. Erosion and sediment ‘. Pathogens and Indicator bacteria Ecological and food chain ; Each of the modeling frameworks was reviewed and analyzed in depth following an evaluation process to determine the present status of the framework as applied to water resource problems.

The major considerations in determining model status are: Numerical weights were assigned to each of several steps in the evaluation process. The status of two other modeling frameworks, a ice and temperature and b ecological models is poor; and considerable expenditure and research effort caayuga required to bring these models to the point of useful application in water resource planning. The remaining seven modeling frameworks fall in a marginal” status where some key variables or phenomena may be lacking but a sufficient base caguga been laid for some preliminary applications of the models to planning questions.

It is also concluded from the analysis that there is a pressing need for model synthesis, because many efforts in the past have been fragmented and directed to rather narrowly conceived aspects of planning problems. A demonstration modeling framework was constructed to illustrate this process of synthesis and to demonstrate the feasibility of the application of existing teechreport technology to real planning problems in the Great Lakes.

The demonstration model framework includes models of: Long term trends on the Great Lakes scale of conservative water quality variables such as total dissolved solids and chlorides. Regional models of Western Lake Erie for chlorides and bacteria. Eutrophication model of Western Lake Erie. Food chain model of Western Lake Erie.


The primary emphasis in the demonstration model effort is placed on the eutrophication model. This model is structured so as to maximize its ability to csyuga to several planning alternatives. The model includes effects of both biological and chemical reactions with the primary variable being phytoplankton biomass.

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A variety of applications of the demonstration model framework to Type II planning questions were carried out. It is concluded on the basis ‘of the results of these applications that the models provide new and important insights into the consequences of proposed control actions, insights, that would ordinarily not be obvious without the application of quantitative modeling and system analysis techniques.

In evaluating and ranking the problem categories to provide a basis for techreeport in any further Phase II study, four criteria were used: Of the seven problem areas, it is concluded that the ice category and a portion of the public health category near shore pathogen problems are generally not Type II planning problems.

Techrepot ranking of the four remaining Type II planning problems which was subjectively established in lieu of being objectively determined techreporf Public Health regional and lake wide.

A range of alternate Limnological Systems Analysis programs were evaluated in order to explore varying levels of effort and cost for a Phase II study. Level 3 funding is felt to be the maximum amount that can be prudently spent for a Phase II study of the use of a Limnological Systems Analysis for the Great Lakes.

It is feasible to. Mathematical modeling and system analysis techniques can provide important preliminary quantitative estimates of the effects of certain proposed water resource control actions. Sufficient data presently exist for the immediate implementation of: Analysis are from SO. Within this level, it is recommended that: Existing subsystem models, parameter values, and inputs be gathered into interactive modeling frameworks.

Generalized computer programs be developed and modifications be. Applications be made of existing; systems technology to those problem categories for which a reasonable degree of. The following specific problem contexts are recommended for inclusion in the Phase II study: Eutrophication – biomass problems 4. Food chain toxicant problems: Comprehensive Great Lakes scale 2.

Lake wide scale 3. Specific attention is directed to an evaluation.

Equally important, if not more so, its purpose is to evaluate the degree to which these processes cyuga be expressed in a valid mathematical form within a system analysis framework.

The greater our ability to express these processes in a mathematical form within a system analysis framework, the better the.

Systems analysis is thus one important tool available to the administrator in his decision making role as environmental planner and manager. Natural systems comprise those phenomena whose structures have been determined without man’s influence whereas technological systems have been “directly designed by man to meet various objectives.